Gern. 420

Ronald Barker

Economic Crises Aging Population

The issue of an aging population in industrial countries is a predictable shift in society’s choices and needs. First the age wave know as the “baby boomers” is not just a United States phenomenon  the baby boom occurred after World War II in countries ranging from the United States to its Allies during the war to countries in Asia, Africa and South America. The dates of the boom were between 1944-1963. Demographic experts have show how this change in population has an unnatural consequence on all areas of society including (the types of technologies used today and even how much potato chips need to be created meet their demand for salty snacks). This force of populace has been described as “the pig through the python” its no wonder that not only are Governments around the world concerned, but very alarmed at this aging issue.

Author and demographics forecaster Harry S. Dent has written finical predictions based on this age wave he originally became famous for his 1990’s prediction of “10,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average by year 2000” his research has also led him to predict a financial catastrophe because the Baby Boomers will be liquidating investments as they retire and turn their retirement assets to liquid assets based on the timing of baby boomers we can trace the curve of this crash. In 2009 the first baby boomers started to retire this changing of priorities from long term investing and saving to monetizing and liquidity may reverse the long term growth cycle the market has been on. During economic crash from November 2008- March of 2009 following the housing crises seemed to show the cracks in the system. Without significant actions taken by monetary bodies around the world including the Federal Reserve, United States Treasury and European Union. The evidence that the world would have had an economic “Depression” that would rival the world economic crises 1920’s and 30’s was self evident.

In this same economic environment we have the aging baby boomer and the Nuclear family. This new paradigm that occurred in opposition to the 1920’-30’s was social programs sponsored and supported by National Governments. The design of these programs “had a pay as you go features” this design worked well in societies that had an average age populace that reflected a younger population supporting a small aging population that prior to the baby boomers occurrence allowed the economic structure to work. The challenges are that with an aging population that will outpace the economic support of workers and the Output of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is occurring. In the United States GDP has grown at a diminutive 2.5% per year well medical costs has grown at double digits for the past twenty years.

          Solutions that are working in the United States in regards to medical costs for seniors include a partnering of private and public programs that are designed to provide economic cost savings. Under Traditional Medicare little cost controls and no overall management of cost and duplications in care and delivery of service. The development of Medicare Complete programs with Insurance providers has helped to extend and expand Medicare and provided cost savings both to end users and the government. Milton Friedman world famous Economist has expounded on the unity of Government and Private capital to assemble to deal with enormous social issues. That rather than having the government work in a vacuum that both public policy and monetary policy work with public corporations to meet the social issues. Cost savings and delivery solutions are being assembled in Medicare solutions including Medicare Care Complete products that use traditional medical insurance HMO organizations to deliver medical coverage to Medicare participants while limiting costs. For Medicare recipients who are will to do cost sharing the Medicare Supplement programs allow for access to PPO networks. This combination of private and public can lead to decisions that may not be available to each separately. This collaboration can lead to dynamic solutions to the most pressing questions facing the aging population. The dynamic process of aging in an aging society requires solutions that work out of our traditional comfort zone. The paradigm will be for public officials to reach out to the industrial leaders showing how working together will lead to economies of scale that will reduce coast and increase service thus solving the problems of aging society.     

          In conclusion, the aging populace of industrial societies will require collaboration between Private capital and Public policy that congregate to form solutions and delivery systems that meet the needs of this new society. The questions that face both policy makers and the public at large is how do we develop these solutions. Is a pragmatic approach that is only addressing problems as they become visible to layman or do we have researchers including gerontologist work to together to design a uniform set of standards and practices to address the needs of care giving, health care, financial issues that are facing a shifting pattern of aging.